Is the Phoenix Housing Market Shifting Toward a Buyer’s Market?

By Dave Zajdzinski

Dave Zajdzinski and the team bring 40 + years of real estate experience to home buyers and sellers throughout Arizona.

Are you curious about whether we’re in a buyer’s or seller’s market in Phoenix right now? Knowing the answer is important because it can directly impact your decisions, whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or invest. While we’ve seen a few buyer’s markets in the past 20 years, the current trends suggest that we may be seeing a shift. Let’s break down the current trends and what they mean for you.

Supply and demand. To understand the market, it’s important to look at supply and demand. Think of a scenario like buying tickets for an ASU football game to help visualize the market better. When there’s high demand for tickets but limited availability, the price increases. The same principle applies to real estate.

When there are more sellers than buyers, it puts pressure on prices. Sellers might want to sell quickly or for a high price due to situations like job transfers or already having bought a new home. On the other hand, when there are fewer buyers, prices could stabilize or drop.

The numbers behind supply and demand. According to the Cromford Report, as of January 2025, supply in Phoenix is at 85.4% of what it should be. Demand, however, is at 76.6%. This creates an imbalance, with more sellers than buyers. Such an imbalance can start to pressure prices and influence the market.

The last time we saw a similar spread was in December 2022, when we briefly had a buyer’s market. However, it quickly shifted back to a seller’s market. That brief shift occurred because the supply and demand numbers returned to a level that favored sellers.

Looking back: The 2006 crash. To understand the bigger picture, we can look back at the 2006 crash. At that time, there was a huge difference between supply and demand. Supply was double what it should have been, while buyer demand was much lower. This imbalance led to a crash. Fortunately, today, the situation is not as extreme. The 2006 crash was influenced by factors like easy loans and speculation by builders, which is unlikely to happen again.

What to expect. While the market may be experiencing a small correction, it’s not a full-blown crash. The difference between supply and demand right now is not as large as it was during the 2006 crash, so a severe downturn is unlikely. This is a minor correction primarily due to affordability issues and does not signal a drastic market crash.

The Phoenix real estate market is showing a trend where supply is outpacing demand. While this may put some pressure on prices, we’re not looking at a full-blown market crash. Understanding these trends is key to making the right choices whether you’re buying or selling. For personalized advice on how this affects you, feel free to reach out to me at 480-332-6468 or send an email to dave@zteamaz.com. I’m here to help you navigate the market!